Analysis of recent coronavirus data for different countries and regions

Note: On March 24 the source of the data suddenly changed the format of the tables. I have updated the script to use data from a different source. If you see problems with any of the plots, please let me know.

Table of contents

Updated on Tuesday 07 April 2020

Author: Javier Moldon

"No matter how much you talk about them or think about them, you will still underestimate exponentials".
Jeremy Howard

General statistics

List of most affected countries

Sorted by highest number of deaths in the previous day

Deaths Confirmed Recovered Active
Country/Region
United States 10846 (+1241) 364716 (+28389) 19536 (+2291) 334334 (+24857)
France 8911 (+833) 98010 (+5171) 17250 (+1067) 71849 (+3271)
Spain 13341 (+700) 136675 (+5029) 40437 (+2357) 82897 (+1972)
Italy 16523 (+636) 132547 (+3599) 22837 (+1022) 93187 (+1941)
United Kingdom 5373 (+439) 51608 (+3802) 135 (+0) 46100 (+3363)
Germany 1810 (+226) 103374 (+3251) 28700 (+0) 72864 (+3025)
Belgium 1632 (+185) 20814 (+1123) 3986 (+235) 15196 (+703)
Iran 3739 (+136) 60500 (+2274) 24236 (+4500) 32525 (-2362)
Netherlands 1867 (+101) 18803 (+952) 250 (+0) 16686 (+851)
Brazil 564 (+78) 12183 (+1053) 127 (+0) 11492 (+975)
Sweden 477 (+76) 7206 (+376) 205 (+0) 6524 (+300)
Turkey 649 (+75) 30217 (+3148) 1326 (+284) 28242 (+2789)
Switzerland 765 (+50) 21657 (+557) 8056 (+1641) 12836 (-1134)
Canada 323 (+43) 16666 (+1154) 3534 (+592) 12809 (+519)
Romania 176 (+25) 4057 (+193) 406 (+32) 3475 (+136)
Algeria 173 (+21) 1423 (+103) 90 (+0) 1160 (+82)
India 136 (+19) 4778 (+490) 375 (+47) 4267 (+424)
Austria 220 (+16) 12297 (+246) 3463 (+465) 8614 (-235)
Ireland 174 (+16) 5364 (+370) 25 (+0) 5165 (+354)
Portugal 311 (+16) 11730 (+452) 140 (+65) 11279 (+371)
Mexico 94 (+15) 2143 (+253) 633 (+0) 1416 (+238)
Poland 107 (+13) 4413 (+311) 162 (+28) 4144 (+270)
Indonesia 209 (+11) 2491 (+218) 192 (+28) 2090 (+179)
Philippines 163 (+11) 3660 (+414) 73 (+9) 3424 (+394)
Colombia 46 (+11) 1579 (+94) 88 (+0) 1445 (+83)

Global situation

These plots show the global situation of the countries with higher number of deaths.

Deaths

Confirmed Cases

World (except China)

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 06 April 2020 71282 (+5206) 1261675 (+71469) 201133 (+16673)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 07 April 2020 76884 ( +5330) 1333824 ( +72851) 221064 ( +17931)
Wed 08 April 2020 82015 ( +5131) 1402502 ( +68679) 238597 ( +17533)
Thu 09 April 2020 86885 ( +4869) 1466505 ( +64002) 255464 ( +16867)
Fri 10 April 2020 91444 ( +4560) 1525511 ( +59006) 271438 ( +15974)
Sat 11 April 2020 95661 ( +4216) 1579374 ( +53863) 286344 ( +14905)

China

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 06 April 2020 3331 (+2) 81708 (+39) 77078 (+114)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 07 April 2020 3262 ( +0) 81053 ( +0) 75742 ( +54)
Wed 08 April 2020 3263 ( +0) 81053 ( +0) 75789 ( +47)
Thu 09 April 2020 3263 ( +0) 81053 ( +0) 75830 ( +41)
Fri 10 April 2020 3263 ( +0) 81053 ( +0) 75866 ( +36)
Sat 11 April 2020 3263 ( +0) 81053 ( +0) 75897 ( +31)

Evolution of cases

All plots have the same information. Left: log scale, right: linear scale. Top: number of confirmed cases, deaths, recovered cases and active cases. An exponential or logistic function is fitted to the data and plotted as a line, with the confidence interval covering uncertainties of the fitted parameters of 1-$\sigma$ . Bottom: deaths per day. Active cases is simply confirmed - (deaths + recovered). Also note that the number of confirmations is not homogeneous among countries because it depends on how many tests are done and to what part of the population. Bottom-right: is a zoom to show the correct scale for deaths. The straight line is a fit to a logistic growth when possible. If the fit does not converge (low number of points in early stages) a simple exponential is used. The dashed line is a prediction based on the fit.

Spain

Spain is following Italy's behaviour and we should expect a smooth peak that lasts several days (more than the model predicts). That is because the peak should be sharp for a given population, but countries are the sum of several big cities with different peaks times. Therefore the peak is wider than predicted by the one-population curve fit.

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 06 April 2020 13341 (+700) 136675 (+5029) 40437 (+2357)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 07 April 2020 13586 ( +451) 139803 ( +4068) 43411 ( +2762)
Wed 08 April 2020 13961 ( +374) 143274 ( +3471) 45809 ( +2398)
Thu 09 April 2020 14268 ( +307) 146209 ( +2935) 47845 ( +2036)
Fri 10 April 2020 14517 ( +249) 148671 ( +2462) 49541 ( +1696)
Sat 11 April 2020 14718 ( +201) 150722 ( +2051) 50932 ( +1391)

Italy

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 06 April 2020 16523 (+636) 132547 (+3599) 22837 (+1022)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 07 April 2020 16716 ( +420) 131523 ( +2246) 23604 ( +900)
Wed 08 April 2020 17084 ( +367) 133481 ( +1958) 24428 ( +824)
Thu 09 April 2020 17403 ( +319) 135180 ( +1699) 25177 ( +749)
Fri 10 April 2020 17679 ( +276) 136649 ( +1469) 25851 ( +675)
Sat 11 April 2020 17915 ( +237) 137914 ( +1265) 26455 ( +604)

United States

I use the combined data for all the states combined

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 06 April 2020 10846 (+1241) 364716 (+28389) 19536 (+2291)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 07 April 2020 12002 ( +1139) 385634 ( +23572) 21198 ( +1879)
Wed 08 April 2020 13035 ( +1033) 406580 ( +20946) 22807 ( +1609)
Thu 09 April 2020 13943 ( +908) 424839 ( +18259) 24135 ( +1329)
Fri 10 April 2020 14719 ( +775) 440493 ( +15654) 25201 ( +1065)
Sat 11 April 2020 15365 ( +646) 453722 ( +13229) 26034 ( +833)

France

I think the huge increase of death numbers on April 3 is due to this: France's Coronavirus Death Toll Jumps as Nursing Homes Included. April 2, 2020

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 06 April 2020 8911 (+833) 98010 (+5171) 17250 (+1067)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 07 April 2020 10148 ( +1020) 109964 ( +10198) 22383 ( +2902)
Wed 08 April 2020 11149 ( +1001) 120656 ( +10692) 25716 ( +3334)
Thu 09 April 2020 12109 ( +960) 131762 ( +11106) 29547 ( +3831)
Fri 10 April 2020 13010 ( +901) 143187 ( +11425) 33948 ( +4401)
Sat 11 April 2020 13838 ( +827) 154825 ( +11638) 39005 ( +5057)

Iran

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 06 April 2020 3739 (+136) 60500 (+2274) 24236 (+4500)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 07 April 2020 3643 ( +66) 63900 ( +2793) 25397 ( +1954)
Wed 08 April 2020 3702 ( +58) 66636 ( +2736) 27514 ( +2117)
Thu 09 April 2020 3753 ( +51) 69301 ( +2666) 29807 ( +2294)
Fri 10 April 2020 3797 ( +45) 71885 ( +2583) 32292 ( +2485)
Sat 11 April 2020 3836 ( +39) 74375 ( +2490) 34984 ( +2692)

Germany

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 06 April 2020 1810 (+226) 103374 (+3251) 28700 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 07 April 2020 1935 ( +151) 106222 ( +3213) 39937 ( +5756)
Wed 08 April 2020 2070 ( +135) 109001 ( +2780) 46662 ( +6725)
Thu 09 April 2020 2188 ( +118) 111385 ( +2383) 54520 ( +7858)
Fri 10 April 2020 2289 ( +100) 113412 ( +2027) 63701 ( +9181)
Sat 11 April 2020 2372 ( +84) 115125 ( +1713) 74428 ( +10727)

United Kingdom

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 06 April 2020 5373 (+439) 51608 (+3802) 135 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 07 April 2020 6165 ( +651) 56028 ( +4397) 187 ( +11)
Wed 08 April 2020 6773 ( +608) 60234 ( +4206) 199 ( +11)
Thu 09 April 2020 7322 ( +549) 64184 ( +3950) 211 ( +12)
Fri 10 April 2020 7802 ( +481) 67831 ( +3647) 224 ( +13)
Sat 11 April 2020 8212 ( +410) 71145 ( +3314) 237 ( +14)

Sweden

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 06 April 2020 477 (+76) 7206 (+376) 205 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 07 April 2020 508 ( +39) 7792 ( +484) 213 ( +1)
Wed 08 April 2020 543 ( +35) 8275 ( +483) 214 ( +0)
Thu 09 April 2020 572 ( +30) 8754 ( +479) 214 ( +0)
Fri 10 April 2020 597 ( +25) 9225 ( +471) 214 ( +0)
Sat 11 April 2020 618 ( +21) 9684 ( +459) 214 ( +0)

Netherlands

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 06 April 2020 1867 (+101) 18803 (+952) 250 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 07 April 2020 1974 ( +100) 19104 ( +670) 250 ( +0)
Wed 08 April 2020 2060 ( +85) 19694 ( +590) 250 ( +0)
Thu 09 April 2020 2132 ( +72) 20207 ( +513) 250 ( +0)
Fri 10 April 2020 2191 ( +59) 20650 ( +443) 250 ( +0)
Sat 11 April 2020 2239 ( +48) 21030 ( +380) 250 ( +0)

Poland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 06 April 2020 107 (+13) 4413 (+311) 162 (+28)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 07 April 2020 128 ( +18) 4732 ( +342) 187 ( +24)
Wed 08 April 2020 147 ( +20) 5060 ( +328) 204 ( +18)
Thu 09 April 2020 169 ( +21) 5371 ( +311) 216 ( +12)
Fri 10 April 2020 192 ( +23) 5661 ( +290) 225 ( +8)
Sat 11 April 2020 215 ( +23) 5927 ( +267) 230 ( +5)

Switzerland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 06 April 2020 765 (+50) 21657 (+557) 8056 (+1641)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 07 April 2020 813 ( +47) 21499 ( +350) 10476 ( +2013)
Wed 08 April 2020 855 ( +42) 21790 ( +291) 12967 ( +2491)
Thu 09 April 2020 891 ( +37) 22031 ( +241) 16051 ( +3084)
Fri 10 April 2020 923 ( +32) 22230 ( +199) 19868 ( +3817)
Sat 11 April 2020 950 ( +27) 22393 ( +163) 24592 ( +4725)

Belgium

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 06 April 2020 1632 (+185) 20814 (+1123) 3986 (+235)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 07 April 2020 1744 ( +132) 21654 ( +982) 5111 ( +757)
Wed 08 April 2020 1858 ( +115) 22520 ( +866) 5999 ( +888)
Thu 09 April 2020 1955 ( +97) 23273 ( +753) 7041 ( +1043)
Fri 10 April 2020 2035 ( +80) 23920 ( +647) 8265 ( +1224)
Sat 11 April 2020 2100 ( +65) 24470 ( +550) 9702 ( +1436)

Comparison of different countries

Early onset: China regions

Most of the regions have almost completed the cycle and active cases are disappearing. Note that China Hubei (the original area) has a large number of confirmed cases (70000), but the other regions have very low number of cases, with number around 1200-500 or even less.

Other countries

South Korea has a remarkable recovery rate, with many cases and a reduced number of deaths. Japan growth is moderate, much smaller than in European countries. Iran is showing hints of flattening, although it is curious that the number of recoveries has significantly slowed down while the number of deaths still follow a very exponential trend.